How to manually find value bets:
Like financial analysts, value bettors should calculate their own odds for a market using all information available to them. By calculating your own probabilities, you can compare them to the bookmakers or prices on the betting exchange and notice if a selection is undervalued or overvalued.
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Value betting is a fundamental concept in financial trading.
The aim of value betting as we now know is to assess the likelihood of an event more accurately than bookmakers or other users on an exchange. To do this it is vital you think in probability and not just look to back favourites by assessing each team’s chances of winning rather than simply by who you believe will win.
The bookmaker, on the other hand, makes a 50p profit for every £10 staked. This is their edge, or margin, and is the key to how they make money from the bets they offer.
Favourites do not win all the time. Instead, once you have calculated your own odds, you should aim to identify differences in the implied probabilities for each outcome compared to what is on offer. If it does then you have found betting value, assuming that you can calculate the true probabilities more accurately.
Bookmakers use betting analysts, sports traders, and quants (quantitative analysts) to assess, as accurately as possible, the likelihood of an outcome.
The Discipline of Value Betting: Patience Pays
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The Psychology of Value Betting: Why It Works
The best place to find value is to specialise on niche markets, where the playing field is more level between bookmakers and bettors on an exchange. Once you understand the market very well, you will be able to identify odds that are skewed from your own, providing you with an opportunity to make value bets.
Common Misconceptions About Value Betting
Now you know that odds are just an interpretation of probabilities, finding value should be ever-present in your betting if you are to turn a long term profit.
Wrapping Up: The Treasure Hunt of Value Betting
Understanding these probabilities and calculating them accurately is key to successful betting. Computing the true chances of an outcome more accurately than others will provide you with potentially profitable opportunities through value betting.
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Traders should build their own models, generating their own odds for a betting market. When the odds in the model differentiate widely enough compared with a bookmaker or other user on an exchange, this is perceived to be a value bet.
Wishing everyone success in their own value betting adventures!
When two football teams play each other, betting analysts look at data, including previous results, recent form, expected weather conditions, team selection, and injuries. They use this to predict the likelihood of the outcomes of a wide range of bets.